Nate Silver Polls 2024 Date. And the counterarguments, polling errors are hard to predict, equally likely to affect either party, pollsters updated methods after 2020, and had a great year in 2022 (and 2018). Trump is a unique candidate, and he outperformed in 2016 and 2020, and therefore is more likely to do so again.

Nate silver’s silver bulletin polling average has harris up by 3 points over trump nationally, marking her largest lead yet in that average. Earlier this week, nate silver’s election projection model saw trump surging ahead for the first time in weeks.